The economy is dying but the markets seem to be living large

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The International Monetary Fund predicts 2020 to be the worst downturn since the 1929 Great Depression. 
The Minneapolis Fed says unemployment rates could surge to Great Depression levels.
Barron’s News & Finance said, “perhaps it’s better to think in terms of biblical disasters.”

So why do markets not seem to be pricing this in?

Many people see an upward trend on the stock market and think that the economy is going well (despite the anecdotal evidence of millions of people out of work and thousands of closed shopfronts).

To gauge a clearer picture of stock values, I like to compare them to property and bonds by doing simple division. We divide the price of the asset by the income it is bringing and get an answer to the question: “How many years do I need to hold this to get my money back?”

From the 1970’s through the noughties, US interest rates averaged around 5%, or 5 divided by 100. This meant that if you held a term deposit account, it would take 20 years (5/100) for you to make your money back, just in income. You would also get the capital back (hopefully you would get the capital back, but as we have found out with some bank collapses, this is not 100% guaranteed).

Twenty years is an acceptable timeframe for many investors, as we can foresee that in our lifetimes, and it’s about the time you would be responsible for a child or a mortgage.

To understand why stock prices, property prices and bond prices will fluctuate (in a rational market), we see that sometimes, an investment may pay more than 5% income, making it seem more valuable than cash at the bank.

For example, a bond yielding 6% would see your money return in just 17 years, so we would expect the price of the bond to rise, as it is more desirable than (the 20-year timeframe of) bank interest. If a property was paying 7% rent, your money would return in just 14 years, so we would expect that the increased desirability would cause the price of the property to increase proportionately.

Unfortunately, humans are not always rational, and so our markets are not either. Sometimes, rumours or hype will inflate a particular asset by too much, and it may (briefly) trade at 30, 50, or even 100 or 1000-year timeframes. Such hype is often followed by massive corrections (eg. the “Tech Wreck” of 1999)

Right now, the world is dealing with COVID19 (COrona VIrus Disease 2019), a disease which emerged in 2019 and takes lives and closes businesses. We are also dealing with COVID08 (Creation Of Virtually Infinite Dollars 2008), a disease that started with Quantitative Easing (mindless money printing) measures during 2008’s GFC1, which erodes the wealth of ordinary citizens by inflation.

As the central bank prints another $9 Trillion in unbacked fiat currency, banks and government can use these funds to purchase stocks and bonds, propping up the prices. The problem is, with severely slashed earnings, the stock multiples are way out of historical alignment.

Students of history will know that when banks or governments start to print infinite dollars, hyperinflation follows and the wealth of the working class is wiped out. Germany did it in 1920’s, Zimbabwe did it in the early noughties, and eventually, a Trillion dollar note was not enough to buy a loaf of bread.

Printing infinite dollars has never fixed an economy, ever. Not ever.
In fact, the world’s first fiat currency, the Chinese Yuan dynasty’s Jiaochao suffered hyperinflation from overprinting back in the year 1260.

Whilst central banks concentrate on “big name” stocks that grab headlines (eg. the ‘FAAANG’ stocks or Tesla), it may be possible for investors to find value in smaller labels. Judging by long-term dated bonds or bank deposits, standard bank interest looks to be sub-1% for the next five to ten years. Therefore, any stocks, bonds or properties which yield 3% or over could seem attractive to investors.

If you can manage to find a legitimate asset which has a sustainable yield of 5-6%, be prepared that its price may double when others discover it.

The economy will be in *truly* good shape, when
a) asset prices drop precipitously to levels where current yields return to a more normal 20-30 year timeframe instead of 100 or 1000-years (eyes on Visa, Tesla, Facebook), or
b) earnings dramatically increase so that current prices return to 20-30 ratio rather than 100 or 1000

Most people understand enough math to know that, if you set aside 10% of your income into savings every month, just one bad month will knock out your profits for a year, and one bad year will knock you out for a decade.

We have seen that most companies have either not saved enough, or have paid out too much, and cannot sustain themselves through a bad 2020.

I feel that, after a very bad 2020, it is unlikely that corporate earnings will bounce back dramatically within the next 2-5 years, so my bet is on a fall in asset prices. It’s simple when you think about the math. Far too many people invest on emotion, and that is where they can come unstuck.

Just because I may love the look of a Tesla Roadster, or the allure of a new iPhone, does not mean I should buy their stock. Use your emotions, by all means; but check them against cold hard math. If the ratios are beyond your comfort or comprehension, then perhaps sit this one out.

As this is pressed, legendary stock investor Warren Buffett is holding around US$128 Billion in cash. We all know the earnings on this are under 1%, so perhaps the Oracle of Omaha is stocking up on cash and waiting to buy at much lower multiples than those which are currently available.  This was exactly what he did during GFC1; making over $10 Billion when markets dropped and laid their bargains bare.

For #GFC2, Buffett is sitting on more cash than he ever has in his 70+ year investing history. A patient man, Buffett is “afraid when others are greedy” and “greedy when others are afraid”. Those who wish to invest wisely could emulate the best investor; using prudence and patience in equal measure.

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When Bronze beats Gold

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There is a time when bronze beats gold… not in the Olympics, but in Economics.

 
Bronze is an alloy made of a few things, with around 80% copper. Copper is an essential component in cars, houses and electronic devices. It is also a harbinger of booms and busts.
 
In economics, it is actually copper which comes first, and tells you where the gold will be.
 
Recently we have seen the stock price of Tesla soaring, as people become more interested in electric vehicles (EV’s). This is great news for those concerned about pollution and peak oil, and there is little doubt that EV’s will make a cleaner, greener world.
 
BUT — Watch out for the copper: a standard fuel car has around 10-20kg of copper wiring. An electric car has more than TRIPLE that amount. So, when people buy more EV’s, copper demand should go up, and copper prices should rise also, right?
 
Smart vehicle forecasters have said that current demand for EV’s will rise from around 3 million now, to around 130 million by 2030. This should be good news for copper.
 
But the car-makers are not economists, nor are they investors. Investors have been dumping copper and pushing the price down. Copper prices have just had their worst fortnight in recorded history.
 
Any copper which will be used in smartphones, electric vehicles and smart houses in 2021-2022 has already been bought by manufacturers. For copper prices to be going down, it seems to indicate that manufacturers are forecasting fewer sales in future, not more.
 
Manufacturers make money when we buy more things. If they are buying less copper and making fewer things, then they must be expecting a downturn. Nobody goes into a growing market with shrinking inventory.
 
If you are not planning to buy a new smartphone, electric vehicle or upgrade to a smart home appliance in the next year or two, then consider that maybe millions of others just like you, are also delaying purchases.
 
What are you waiting for? What would it take to get you to buy more electronic gadgets? A raise, a promotion, a new president or a booming economy?
 
You may be waiting a while. And it seems that manufacturers may know a dirty little secret: the economy may get worse before it gets better.
 
Manufacturers are buying less copper, presumably creating less inventory, and arguably staring at reduced forecast profits and earnings.
 
If the stock in Tesla, Apple, and other makers of electronic gizmos are going to head south sometime in the next few months, it may be well to avoid copper, avoid tech stocks, and accumulate gold: both physical (GOLD, BUGS) and digital (BTC).
 
You could also look at silver: both physical (ETPMAG) and digital (ETH, EOS, ATOM).
 
Remember that 20 years ago, some former “blue-chip” investments headed south very quickly, dropping by half or two-thirds or even more:
 
Performance: 2000–2002
Cisco Systems -89.3%
Apple -81.1%
Microsoft -65.2%
Intel -82.3%
Dell EMC -96.2%
Oracle -84.2%
Merck -58.8%
Boeing -58.6%
IBM -58.8%
Amgen -66.9%
 
Diversify. Do Your Own Research.
Invest wisely. And watch out for the ‘coppers’ 🙂
#gold #silver #copper #bitcoin #ethereum #BostonCoin
 
(Image: Marlen Esparza, USA flyweight bronze medallist)
 
DISCLAIMER: the author may hold positions in physical metals and digital currencies (crypto). Nobody ever said he was impartial, but a few people said he can be clever occasionally 🙂 Do your own research; this is general financial education, not specific financial advice.
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How to make money flow towards you (for real!)

Make money flow to you: it’s easy!

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There are many new-age ultra-spiritual gurus around who will give you advice on how to make money flow to you, for example: burn sage, pray, tithe to your church, dance naked under the full moon, sacrifice virgin black goats to the pagan money gods… (you can burn pictures of goats if you’re vegan or squeamish).

Unfortunately none of these methods have any basis in science or economics, and they only seem to make the gurus richer, not you.

So here’s *really* how to do it, scientifically proven, from someone who knows…


  1. Use a Mantra

One money mantra of mine is I do NOT do free advertising for multi-billion-dollar companies“. 
Search my entire wardrobe and you will not find a single shirt, hat, belt or any other kind of outfit which is emblazoned with a brand name on it.
Ralph Lauren doesn’t need his ad for free on your chest, neither does Nike or Adidas need their name on your pants. Unless you have a sporting or sponsorship deal where they pay you to market their brand, purchase a *good quality* unbranded outfit and save the difference into an investment account.
If all of your friends are wearing Gucci, Tommy, Kloe etc, then feel free to invest into those trending companies by buying stock in the company (you can use a discount broker such as RobinHood to buy as little as $50 worth of stock). Own the companies. Get paid by the companies for investing into their stock. Do not work for them for free.
In the award-winning best-seller “Who’s Taking Your Money? (and how to get some of it back!)“, there are over 1000 examples of different brands and how to profit from them; by buying their stock, not by running free ads for them.
You are not sacrificing quality, status or anything else by refusing to wear branded goods; you are reclaiming your sovereign nature, and realising that your body is worth more than being a free billboard for some faceless mega-corporation.
Take notice of what billionaire Steve Jobs wore, or what Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Warren Buffett or Richard Branson wears. These billionaires value their bodies and do not do free ads. Buy good quality so it lasts a long time, and only wear brands if they pay you to do so, otherwise, make them pay you by owning stock in their company.

2. Use another Mantra

Another mantra I have used for many years is, “If I didn’t own it, would I buy it now?” 

This mantra arose after I had been successfully investing into the stock market, and had made gains of 450% up to 800% *but I did not sell* and the market crashed. Ouch! Nothing sobers you up faster than when your ten-cent stock rises to $2 (I’m a genius!) and then crashes to five cents the following year (oh crap!).
This mantra was a reminder that the stock which was “a bargain” to me at $10 was no longer a bargain to others when it reached $100. If I wasn’t willing to buy it at that price, others may also refuse to buy it, and the value could soon plummet.
“If I didn’t own it, would I buy it now?” became a mantra I printed out and stuck up above my PC so I would see it every day. It reminded me to sell when a stock or property or any other asset looked overpriced.
Over time, I came to apply this mantra to many other things, such as objects around my house.
My barbeque, for example, was only used once a year on my birthday, and otherwise just sat there taking up room and looking untidy. Using the mantra, I thought, “No, I would not buy it if I didn’t own it”, so I sold it. I decided to rent a BBQ once a year, and put the capital money into investments. I later did the same with old clothes and other unwanted items (sell them or donate them to charity).
It is a spiritual law that Money likes *FLOW* and the faster you are rid of clutter (old investments or unused belongings), the faster the new money can flow to you.

3. Use another Money Mantra

Another favourite mantra of mine is “Invest where you spend” and it can be used for many companies, not just clothing labels, banks or takeout. You can purchase stock in your daily utility companies, such as power, phone service provider etc.
Wherever you spend money on a weekly or monthly basis, may be a great investment for the longer term. Remember to DYOR (Do Your Own Research), apply the second mantra to check for value, and remember to sell your stock if your own or your friends’ interest wanes. Some companies may trend like a fad and then pass, so #staywoke and watch where the flow is going now.
You can use the book “Who’s Taking Your Money?” to discover many of the corporations behind thousands of brands, or do your own research on Google.
Even the company who has your mortgage, car insurance or where you buy fuel: invest a little bit of your money into ownership of  whoever takes a piece of your paycheck, and you too, can get some of your money back. 
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Silver’s Golden Secret

gold silver.PNG

Silver has a Golden Secret: a magical ratio which has been around since Egypt, Rome and before modern countries and currencies existed. Learn the code and prosper.

The case for silver:

Geologists know there is 17x as much silver in the earth’s crust as gold. If silver is 1/17th as scarce, it should theoretically be 1/17th as valuable as gold. Historically, it often has been priced at a 17:1 ratio. Right now, the ratio has gone nuts.

Ancient Romans fixed the price of gold vs silver at 15:1, thousands of years ago, before there were geologists, and before there even was an AD or CE after the date.

The gold/silver ratio was fixed at 15.5:1 by European law in the 1700’s, and by the USA in the 1800’s, and held true up until the 1840’s, when people went crazy.

The famous 1850’s “Gold Rush” saw people get “gold fever”, gold prices increase rapidly and silver lag behind. The long-running 15:1 ratio became 20, and then 30 as gold became seen as more ‘trendy’ than its cousin.

The gold/silver ratio was out of alignment even leading into WW2, with the gold/silver ratio peaking at 97:1 in 1940 as Nazis and Allies sought to accumulate as much gold as possible.

Ba-bowwwm

When you stretch a rubber band too far, it has to snap back. After WW2 ended, the gold/silver ratio dropped back to the more normal historical territory. Gold prices scarcely moved by more than a couple of dollars over the next 30 years, whilst silver prices went up over 470%

When the USA dropped the gold standard in 1971, the next decade saw $US fall in value at the same time as gold was in demand. Gold prices rose 1700% and silver lagged a little, increasing around 1000% in less than 10 years.

Heading into the 1990’s (a decade of high interest rates), gold prices dropped almost 50% and silver dropped further, around 75%. Cash was king, but with silver dropping far more than gold, the old ratio was out of alignment; once more over 90:1.

Gold prices dropped steadily whilst silver stayed firm. It took gold almost 13 years to go back to its previous highs. From 1990 to 2003, gold went backward whilst silver piled on 20%. The long-running ratio was proving itself once more.

Although gold prices picked up 240% during the lead-up to the GFC, silver piled on more than 300% over the same period. The gold/silver ratio had dropped from 90+ to just 58; and by 2011, to 44.

and now…

In 2019, with Trade Wars, negative interest rates, fears of hyperinflation in the west and inverted bond yields, gold has risen to new highs, and receives a lot of media attention.

What the news fails to tell you, is that the ratio is again nudging 90:1, and it may not stay there long.

Mark Twain said, “History may not repeat, but it definitely echoes“. The last few times that the gold/silver ratio nudged north of ninety, it has dropped back to 50 or below within a couple of years.

To get back into ‘the zone’, one of two things would need to occur:

1) gold prices would have to drop by half from current levels (which is very unlikely), or 2) silver prices would have to double.

I am not saying that the current silver price of $27 per ounce will again hit or exceed $49 per ounce (like it did on April 29th, 2011), but do not be surprised if the ratio which has been around for over 6000 years, still holds true in a modern world filled with lies and politics.

It’s hard to argue with historical precedent, and it’s impossible to argue with geology 🙂

**Disclaimer: the author has been stacking silver throughout 2019, as he is a firm believer in historical echoes and not hysterical pricing. He also owns stock in silver mining companies (bought late 2019) and other scarce commodities such as bitcoin and ethereum cryptocurrency. The above information is for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Stay woke: turn off the TV and pick up a history book. See you after GFC 2.0 😉
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Beating the billionaires (run before the gun)

thought transfer lightbulb ideas

Back in 2005, I asked the question: “Who’s Taking Your Money?” (and then promised to show you how to get some of it back!).

If you didn’t buy the book, the answer was “big corporations are taking your money: banks, insurance companies, elecricity companies, governments, telcos, grocery chains and so on…” and then we showed you how to “flip the script” and get some of the money back.

People who followed the advice reclaimed their power, got smarter and often became millionaires in the process.

And now it’s time to do it all over again. In a new market. This time you can get there before the big corporations take over.

Bitcoin and crypto came out of the shadows and into the limelight last year

  • Stellar was up 14,441%
  • Dash soared 9,265%
  • Ripple climbed 36,018%.

2017 was an amazing year for crypto investors.

But if we switch to 2018, the difference is stark.

On 8 January 2018, the entire crypto network was valued at almost a Trillion dollars (US$830 billion)

By 6 February, only four weeks later, the market had more than halved in value. Bang! All the way down to just $281 billion.

That was a 66% drop in a single month.

Bitcoin dived 69%, Ethereum shed 59% and Litecoin dropped 70%.

Although we’ve recently seen the market recover and most cryptos bounce back, heaps of financial analysts have declared the recent correction as “the end of cryptocurrency”

Yeah, well… what do they know?

Number one: this is a new asset class, and historical rules cannot be used for disruptive technology (who knew 20 years ago that we’d be sharing cars with strangers, staying in stranger’s homes, or spending hours a day on social media?)

Number two: although the history of crypto is only a decade, there’s a pattern:
**Every time cryptos have fallen they’ve come back stronger than ever.**

23 January 2014: JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon called bitcoin ‘a terrible store of value’. Yes, at the time, bitcoin had halved (as it does most Januarys).

By March 2017, bitcoin had recovered all of its gains, and then some.

September 2017, Jamie Dimon called bitcoin ‘a fraud’. Bitcoin prices fell from around $5,000 to less than $3,000.

In the months that followed, bitcoin raced to $20,000

Obviously, the “expert” didn’t know jack…

Yes, bitcoin tanked again after its peak. But the show is not over yet. In fact, it’s just beginning.

A few years ago, bitcoin and crypto was used almost exclusively by “geeks, nerds and weirdos” (they said the same thing about the internet in 1995).

Then things started to become more mainstream, and millions of “mum and dad” investors from all over the world piled into crypto.

Watch what happens now, as hundreds of millions of people have all seen the power and utility of the underlying blockchain. It’s not just making money out of a crypto currency climb; blockchain shows us that we can do bank settlements and payments *instantly* without waiting three days for a bank transfer.

Very few people mail a stamped letter to a friend now, once they have used email or instant messaging. In the very near future, people will walk away from traditional banks and stock exchanges… unless they offer instant settlement, anonymity and utmost security (like blockchain does).

Some of the major players in banking and finance are adopting blockchain, as FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) comes into play. It’s almost a historical replay of when businesses realised they could market their ads on the internet, and newspaper ads and Yellow Pages started to die…

The “mum and dad” investors have paved the way for big business. They have seen what blockchain can do, and now they want things, and they want things *now* (not in three days).

Big business will have to evolve or die out. We have seen a few banks trial blockchain for cash settlements. Now Wall Street, stockbrokers and billionaires such as George Soros, the Rothschilds and the Rockefellers are planning to invest in the crypto market starting this year.

You have only seen the start of the revolution.

Many people say “I wish I had invested into Microsoft/Apple/Google/Amazon/Facebook etc. back in the early days…”

If you are in the crypto market already, or if you are about to get in, these *are* the early days.

It’s interesting to see that the “big money” is following the general public, rather than leading it. There are probably Wall Street icons and billionaires out there who know even less about crypto than what you do… But they will learn fast.

George Soros made a billion dollars in one currency trade, in one day. He’s not foolish. Rockefeller and Rothschild made billions by getting into emerging industries before they became massive or mainstream. They are not silly.

The bigger institutions will not quibble over a few cents in stock price (or even a few million dollars). When they take a long-term view, they will likely pay any amount to take a position.

Perhaps you missed out on investing into Microsoft, Apple or Facebook. Maybe you didn’t get onto the internet until after all of your friends did. But this time, you can get into crypto before the corporations and institutions buy in. Your time is now.

It’s time. Get involved. Get educated. Get active. Invest like your life depends on it. Don’t be sitting there in 20 years saying “I wish I had invested into crypto back in the day…” Because today is that day.

Join a crypto group on Facebook. Watch a few Youtube clips. Start to understand the crypto jargon (it’s much more simple than you may think).

At one stage, we all had to have a friend explain to us what the typed abbreviation “LOL” actually meant; now some people use it in spoken conversation. The crypto-jargon is just abbreviation, and you’ll master it quickly.

Don’t miss the boat because you don’t understand the language. Find out. Learn something. Ask a friend. Join a group. Watch some videos (twice if necessary). Educate yourself and enrich yourself.

This is your chance to be better at something than the old-money billionaires. But only if you start learning now. Get googling 🙂

More information and free resources at www.cryllionaire.com, https://www.facebook.com/groups/cryllionaire/ or on Youtube http://bit.ly/Cryll1 — be sure to subscribe for weekly updates.

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We are One; you are never “too”

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See the water. See the people. See the people in the water. See the water in the people. See all as One, for you are never “too”…

We are One; you are not “too”. 

Major religions teach that we are All One, originating from one source and returning to that same source, suffering under the illusion of separation. 

Quantum science tells us that we are all One; all inextricably interconnected & all inseparable.

The man-made world will try to tell you that you are different, that you are separate, that you are “too”.

When you believe that we are One, when you believe it in your deepest core, then you no longer wish to harm others, as to harm others would harm yourself.

When you believe and act as if “We are One”, the world becomes an extension of yourself. You stop seeking to fix others or change others, and instead, you work on yourself.

If religion started and ended with the words “We are One”, then life would be simpler. With this belief, the world becomes easier. Life becomes joy.

The man-made world will say that “you are too”… They say this spurious nonsense to you, not to help you, but for their own greedy agenda.

“You are too…” This phrase implies that you are separate, that you are somehow wrong or bad; it implies that you need to get fixed.

Listen to who says “you are too fat” or “you are too thin”: is it the media or magazines trying to sell you diet, exercise, supplements or an impossible ideal?

Who says, “you are too dark” or “you are too pale”? Are they trying to sell you a facewash, skin lightening cream, fake tan or bronzer?

Who says, “you are too ugly”? What are they trying to sell you? Makeup? Plastic surgery? Expensive clothing? Hope in a bottle?

Who says, “you are too strong, too weak, too effeminate, too masculine, too sensitive, too hard-working, too lazy, too gay, too straight, too smart, too stupid, too fast, too slow, too old, too young, too rich, too poor, too introverted, too extroverted, too immature, too sensible, too liberal, too conservative…”?
What are they trying to sell you?

Why do they want you to conform with an arbitrary ideal, made up by them in their own heads? To further their agenda? To give them more control? To make them feel better?

Why should you listen to anyone with a private agenda who says “you are too”?

Just know that We are One. 

The toe does not tell the finger to walk the earth. The heart does not tell the eyes to pump blood. The teeth do not tell the ears to grind food. We may seem different yet we all work together as one. None could thrive as well without the well-being of all the others.

Be yourself, and be mindful of others, as they be themselves. Be aware of the paradox. Accept everyone, except no one.

If you’re reading this, I accept you. We are One. You are never ever “too”  🙂   🙂

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Are you the dog or the tree? 🐕🌲

#trading 🐕 or 🌲?

I mentioned to someone quietly that I was up 50% in 24 hours on #crypto trading. He accused me of “taking advantage of newbies”…

I’ve been in the stockmarket and property market for 25 years. I have learned a lot (but not everything). I’ve never taken advantage of anyone, because, karma… 🙏😆🙏

In my stock dealings, I’ve occasionally gained 600-800% from a good stock pick, and occasionally lost 100% of my share holdings (I can teach you how to do that if you like!) 😆

In my property deals, I’ve occasionally made 160% and occasionally lost 20-30% (I can also teach you how to lose tens of thousands of dollars in property, very quickly!) 😂

The point is, we are ALL newbies at #bitcoin and #altcoins and #cryptocurrency.

Nobody knows everything, nobody has 20 years experience, and sometimes, when trading, you get lucky and sometimes you get unlucky.

I’ve made a motza in stocks by picking the “biggest loser” (and sometimes lost by choosing a loser)

I’ve made money with the “most popular” and I’ve lost money on favourites.

Whether you’re a #quantitative investor or a #qualitative investor, you’re not an all-knowing goddess; sometimes you’ll be up and sometimes you’ll go down

As a friend once said: “Some days you’re the dog, and some days you’re the tree”

If you win, be generous and kind, and be very humble; like a lucky happy dog 🐶

If you lose, don’t lose the lesson. Accept that you’ve been pissed on, and use that in order to grow; like a lucky watered tree 🌲

Trading crypto may be similar to trading stocks, but we don’t have 200+ years of stock market data to look back on.

Be careful. Be humble. Be generous with any knowledge or any $$ you make. And if you lose a few $$, look for the blessing or the lesson

#cryllionaire #btc #eth #xrp

Best-selling stock market and property market book (WTYM) available at http://www.bit.ly/24amazonbooks from $2.99

Free crypto training videos, free bitcoin book at http://www.cryllionaire.com

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